It has been a dreary decade for international trade. From the heights in 2008, global trade flows plunged, staged a quick partial revival, then went into a holding pattern from then until now. In terms of trade intensity, we are far from what we used to be, and many are resigned to our current state as a permanent new normal. The debate on the future of trade has reached a fever pitch, and resulted in a lot of public acrimony. In the context of trade’s track record and the public backlash against its supporting architecture, is a comeback even possible?

Broadly-based disappointment in trade performance is understandable. After all, hopes were so high that in a world of static and even declining populations, the spread of trade would include masses of new consumers and increase productivity through globalization of supply chains. In fact, hopes were so fixed on trade as a solution to other fundamental weaknesses in the economy that they remained steadfast for years following the recession. It is only very recently that globalization has fallen afoul of the average voter – in effect, patience has run out.

Are the detractors right? Did we wrongfully place so much faith in trade and what it could accomplish? Were we wrong to think that the success experienced in the last cycle was an unlocking of centuries of hidden economic activity that was going to take a lot of time to fully realize? Maybe past progress was just an illusion, or maybe it was real, but stamped with a “best before” date that was a whole lot sooner than we thought. These doubts hold a lot of appeal among the disenfranchised in the current cycle.

This was excerpted from a 20 July 2017 commentary by Peter G. Hall of EDC.