The WTO’s latest World Trade Outlook Indicator (WTOI) suggests that global merchandise trade growth will likely moderate in the fourth quarter of 2017. The reading of 102.2 signals continued trade expansion in volume terms, although the pace of growth should be slower than earlier in the year, when trade recorded strong increases.

The latest reading of the WTOI is slightly lower than that issued in August - a value of 102.6 - which pointed to a continuing recovery of trade in the second and third quarters. This was confirmed by actual trade developments, as trade growth remained strong in the second quarter. In the third quarter, a comparable index of world merchandise trade volumes is in line with the indicator, signalling stable trade growth for the period.

The WTOI is designed to provide “real time” information on the trajectory of world trade relative to recent trends. Combining several trade-related indices into a single composite indicator, the WTOI measures short-run performance against medium-term trends.

This has been excerpted from a 13 November 2017 news item by the World Trade Organization.