WTO Press Release: Developing countries’ goods...
14 April 2005
WTO Press Release: Developing countries’ goods trade share surges to 50-year peak
The following is extracted from the World Trade Organization’s press release of 14 April 2005.
Riding a wave of higher oil and commodity prices, and vigorous global trade growth including recovery in trade in office and telecom equipment, developing countries saw their share in world merchandise trade rise sharply in 2004 to 31%, the highest since 1950, according to WTO figures….
However a marked slow-down in overall economic growth that began in the second half of 2004 is likely to decelerate world merchandise trade growth from 9% in 2004 to 6.5% in 2005, WTO economists say.
“As trade continues to play a growing role in economic activity, it is increasingly important for development and poverty alleviation. An ever-growing number of countries are both trading more and participating more actively in setting the trading rules,” said Director-General Supachai Panitchpakdi.
…. A surprisingly strong global economy boosted real world merchandise trade growth in 2004, despite record high crude oil prices. The rate of trade expansion was close to 10% at mid-year, but decelerated in the second half in line with weaker global GDP growth. Nominal merchandise trade growth (21%) was the highest in 25 years due to a combination of strong real trade growth (9%) and a sharp increase in dollar prices (11%).
In 2004, the dollar value of world trade in commercial services increased by 16%. The expansion of services trade was stimulated by strong recovery in transportation and travel services.
Commodity prices again increased faster than prices of manufactured goods in 2004. Prices for fuels and metals expanded by more than 30%, according to the IMF commodity price index. Prices for beverages and textile fibres, however, were much weaker, recording only a marginal increase in 2004.
Price developments largely determined the value of merchandise trade growth by region. The regions/countries with a large share of fuels in their merchandise exports recorded above average export growth in 2004 — that is, the Middle East, Africa and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). In the case of the CIS, very strong economic growth also contributed to a recovery of CIS trade inside the group.
Asia’s merchandise trade growth was sustained by strong US import demand, and intra-Asian trade, stoked by a recovery in electronics trade. In 2004, China became the largest merchandise trader in Asia, and the third largest exporter and importer in world merchandise trade.
North America recorded the weakest growth in nominal merchandise exports and imports of all regions in 2004. North America is the only one of the seven major regions distinguished in this report which recorded a trade deficit on a f.o.b.-f.o.b. basis in 2004. The United States alone had a merchandise trade deficit of $618 billion (f.o.b.-f.o.b.), equivalent to a record 6% of US GDP, and also to 7% of world merchandise trade.
The enlargement of the European Union to 25 members in May 2004 stimulated trade between the new and the old members of the European Union. Including intra-trade, the enlarged European Union accounted for 42% of world merchandise exports and for 52% of world commercial services exports in 2004.
Europe was the only region for which the growth in the dollar value of merchandise and services trade did not exceed the previous year’s level, but this was due entirely to exchange rate movements. Measured in euros, Europe’s merchandise and commercial services exports (and imports) rose faster in 2004 than in 2003. …
The press release in its entirety is available on the WTO web site, at:
http://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres05_e/pr401_e.htm