After the worst survey on record during the initial COVID-19 lockdowns in the spring, Export Development Canada’s Trade Confidence Index (TCI) has increased by more than 20%.
In our latest TCI, conducted in October and November, the index rose to 67.5 from a depressed 56.0 in May, the lowest score since the survey began in 1999.
It’s a relief to see such a broad-based rebound with all five TCI index elements bouncing back, led by improved outlooks for Canadian exports and domestic sales. All regions made gains, with Ontario now the most trade-confident in the country. All firm sizes picked up, especially large companies. And all sectors rose. Infrastructure and environment had the largest gain, while information and communication technology remains one of the most optimistic sectors, reflecting the rapid shift to online activities during the pandemic and the expected benefits to come from major capital spending on upgrades in 2020.
This rebound comes as both global and Canadian trade data for the second and third quarters of 2020 have been better than expected. These survey results are a noticeable improvement from the spring, and suggest Canada’s trade rebound is likely to continue into the first half of 2021 (as shown in the chart)...
This was excerpted from a 17 December 2020 commentary by Peter G. Hall, Vice-President and Chief Economist, Export Development Canada.