A record-breaking government shutdown, an unpredictable batch of first-time congressional Democrats and an intensifying U.S. presidential campaign cycle are muddying the path to ratification for the new NAFTA — with some observers questioning whether the deal will even make it to a vote this year.
Though Canada’s ambassador to Washington, David McNaughton, expressed confidence about the deal’s passage as recently as last week, a confluence of challenges — including calls from some Democrats for a return to the bargaining table — are clouding the chances of a swift ratification, said Dan Uzcjo, an Ohio-based trade lawyer with Dickinson Wright.
“Right now I think it’s going to be a mess, I have to be candid,” said Uzcjo, who has been tracking the votes needed for a deal. “We’re in the middle of a shutdown, so that’s throwing the timetable off and we didn’t have a lot of time to begin with in 2019 to get this thing done. So I’m worried about both the procedural and political calendars right now, along with the players.”
The partial shutdown of the U.S. government — now in week five — is expected to delay the March 15 release of U.S. International Trade Commission’s report on the economic impact of the deal. The report’s publication is among the milestones to ratification outlined in the Trade Promotion Authority, the legislation that guides the negotiation and approval of trade agreements. Though those steps can be sped up if political consensus is achieved, Uzcjo expects House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to adhere tightly to them or even find ways to slow the process down...
This is excerpted from 24 January 2019 edition of the Financial Post.