Canada's small business optimism index has taken a dip in June after rising for seven consecutive months. Future price increases are on a quick downwards trend.
Provincial picture
Over the long term, all provinces but Saskatchewan (47.8) report optimism levels above 50. PEI (77.8) is still leading in optimism and its current level is above its historical average for this time of the year. Quebec, PEI, and NB have bucked the downwards trend that the rest of the provinces have seen in June and gained a bit more optimism.
Sectoral picture
Long term optimism by industry has seen significant variation in June. A few sectors have seen large jumps upwards (e.g., Finance, insurance, and real estate +10.2 points, information and recreation +7.8 points), while others have registered big drops in optimism (e.g., retail -10.8, natural resources -10.2, health and education -7.0). The first three sectors at the top of the confidence scale are reporting healthy levels of optimism (information, recreation; hospitality; and health and education—all with indexes above 60). At the opposite end, natural resources, agriculture, transportation, and retail are below 50 and on downwards trends overall.
Labour market indicators
Full-time staffing plans are weaker in June than in May, with only 18% of SMEs planning to hire while 15% are planning to lay off. Average wage increase plans have seen another decrease to 2.9 from May level of 3.2.
Inflation indicator
Average price increase plans have taken a sharp fall to 3.3 from May level of 3.7. The current level is the lowest since May 2021 when it recorded a similar value.
This is an excerpt from the CFIB’s report.