Small business optimism in Canada
CFIB’s Business Barometer® long-term index, which is based on 12-month forward expectations for business performance, dropped 1.5 points to 45.6, the third consecutive decrease in optimism. The short-term optimism index, based on a 3-month outlook, lost three points, and reached 37.7, a level not seen since January 2022.
Provincial picture
Long term optimism in nearly all provinces decreased further in November. Confidence in Central Canada remained at abysmal levels, 42.0 in Quebec and 45.4 in Ontario. Manitoba and PEI are the only provinces where the outlook seems somewhat better with confidence levels around the mid-fifties.
Sectoral picture
Overall, almost all industries are on downcast paths over the short and long term. The services sectors, except hospitality and transportation, are doing somewhat better with levels above fifties for information, arts, and recreation; health and education; personal services and professional services. All other industries are below the 50 mark, with agriculture being as low as 32.
Inflation indicators
Average price increase plans for the next 12 months zigzagged back to 3.1%. Over the past four months, this indicator oscillated between 3.0 and 3.1 but it hasn’t dropped yet to the 2% range. Average wage plans dropped slightly to 2.6%, significantly lower than November’s 2022 level of 4.0%.
This is an excerpt from the CFIB’s November Monthly Business Barometer.