Last week markets were jolted by an unexpected increase in US consumer prices. Suddenly, all the talk is about inflation spikes, expectations for the next few months, whether the Fed is behind the curve, and so on. Just a month ago, I spoke about tame price increases as a sign of sustained growth. Was that preliminary – are we really in for an inflation shocker?
Are we in for an inflation spike?
Let’s look at the numbers. The January increase in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 0.31 per cent. While that may not look like much, if it continued for a year at that pace we’d be talking about 3.8 per cent growth. That’s a problem; it’s a lot higher than the Fed’s target range. Then consider that for the past seven months, growth has averaged an annual pace of 3.6 per cent. Are the worry-warts right?
This was excerpted from a February 22, 2018 commentary by Peter G Hall, EDC Vice President and Chief Economist.