Supply disruptions have dampened the strength of the rebound in global merchandise trade, but this could be starting to change as supply chain pressures show some signs of easing, the latest WTO Goods Trade Barometer shows. The current reading of 98.7 is below the barometer's baseline value of 100 and down slightly from last November's reading of 99.5, indicating a loss of momentum in trade at the start of 2022 following last year's strong rebound in trade volumes. However, the index also shows signs of bottoming out, suggesting that merchandise trade may turn up soon even if it remains below trend in the near term.

In addition to ongoing supply chain disruptions, the barometer's weakness is partly explained by the introduction of health restrictions to combat the Omicron wave of COVID-19, which some countries are now scrapping since the new variant's health impact has turned out to be relatively mild.  Relaxing these measures could boost trade in the coming months, though future variants of COVID-19 continue to present risks to economic activity and trade.  

In the third quarter of 2021, merchandise trade volume growth slowed to 8.1% year-on-year due to base effects — trade had begun to recover in the second half of 2020 — as well as a small quarter-on-quarter decline. Once statistics become available for the fourth quarter of 2021, they are likely to show even lower year-on-year growth, even if quarter-on-quarter growth turns positive again.  Cumulatively, the volume of trade in the first three quarters of 2021 was up 11.9% compared to the first three quarters of 2020.  This is above the WTO's most recent forecast of 10.8% from last October, but slower year-on-year growth in the fourth quarter should bring the increase for the year more in line with the forecast.

This is an excerpt fro the WTO news article.