CFIB’s Business Barometer® long-term index, which is based on 12-month forward expectations for business performance, inched forward at 56.8—the highest level in the past two years but still about 5 points below the historical average. The short-term optimism index, based on a 3-month outlook, increased by 4 points to 51.8—getting closer to the historical average of 54.0.
Provincial picture
The top four provinces reported levels that are just at or above their historical averages: Prince Edward Island (67.9), Newfoundland and Labrador (61.9), New Brunswick (60.5) and Manitoba (60.4). Ontario and Alberta are just shy of their historical averages at 59.3 and 55.4 respectively.
Sectoral picture
Similarly to the provincial picture, the top five sectors are close to their historical averages: information, arts and recreation (72.1), health and education (64.1), transportation (60.3), and hospitality (58.1). On the contrary, manufacturing (55.1), retail (52.3) and agriculture (47.2) are the sectors reporting the least optimistic outlooks compared to their historical averages.
Inflation indicators
The average price increase indicator decreased to 2.4, the lowest since March 2021. The average wage increase planned for the next 12 months remained unchanged at 2.5.
This is an excerpt from the CFIB report.