CFIB’s Business Barometer® long-term index, which is based on 12-month forward expectations for business performance, remained fairly stable in July at 55.4. The short-term optimism index, based on a 3-month outlook, dropped however four point to 47,0. Both readings are at similar levels as last July, moderate and far from historical averages.
Provincial picture
Canada’s marginal drop in long-term confidence is driven mostly by Ontario’s decline of 3.8 points. However, most provinces have seen improvements. PEI, NL, Manitoba, Alberta, and British Columbia are leading in optimism, and all are above Canada’s reading. The top four provinces are in fact at or shy above their respective historical averages.
Sectoral picture
Almost all sectors recorded improvements in long term optimism. The most notable gains were seen in transportation (+10.2), information, arts and recreation (+8.3) and agriculture (+7.7). Construction (54.6), hospitality (54.1) and agriculture (50.8) are the least optimistic about their long-term outlook; however, their outlooks are just above the 50 mark.
Inflation indicators
The average price increase indicator increased by 0.1 at 2.6. The average wage increase plans for the next 12 months dropped slightly again to 2.5, similar to the March reading.
This is an excerpt from the CFIB report.