CFIB’s Business Barometer® long-term index, which is based on 12-month forward expectations for business performance, increased by almost four points to 59.7. The short-term optimism index, based on a 3-month outlook, also rose slightly to 51.4. This marks the highest long-term confidence level since mid-2022, approaching the historical average of 60.0. Short-term optimism has experienced minor fluctuations over the past six months, currently resting just below its historical average of 54.0.
Provincial picture
Most provinces have seen gains in confidence, mirroring the national trend. Although New Brunswick experienced a decline of several points, it remains just below its historical average and ranks relatively high in overall optimism (4th place). Nova Scotia, British Columbia, and Newfoundland and Labrador showed little change in November.
Sectoral picture
The sectoral landscape follows a similar pattern, with most industries showing an increase in optimism. However, sectors such as construction, personal services, information, arts, and recreation have remained largely unchanged, while the health and education sector saw a slight decline. Excluding agriculture (49.3), long-term optimism across most sectors ranges from the mid-50s to the 70s, indicating a broader economic recovery.
Inflation indicators
The average price increase indicator remained steady at 2.5, while the average wage increase slightly decreased, also settling at 2.5. For more information on price and wage plans, the distribution of the average increase and comparison with past periods, click here.
This is an excerpt from the CFIB report.