CFIB’s Business Barometer® long-term index, which is based on 12-month forward expectations for business performance, remained unchanged in October at 55.8. The short-term optimism index, based on a 3-month outlook, dropped about two points to 48.3. Long-term confidence has remained in the mid-50s over the past six months, indicating some stability in the economic climate. Short-term optimism, however, has fluctuated between 47 and 52 since the start of the year, with this month proving no exception.
Provincial picture
Most provinces have experienced only minor shifts in optimism, with Newfoundland and Labrador marking the most notable decrease. The Maritime provinces lead in confidence, while Manitoba and Saskatchewan report the lowest levels of optimism. New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island, the most confident overall, are well above their historical averages, while Alberta sits just one point above its own. On the other end of the spectrum, Manitoba and Saskatchewan are the farthest below their historical averages.
Sectoral picture
Sectoral indices for long-term confidence vary widely. The four most optimistic industries—finance and insurance; information, arts, and recreation; professional services; and health and education—have indices above 60, though still slightly below their historical averages. Most other sectors are in the 50s range, with agriculture notably lower at 43.5, a full 10 points below its historical reading.
Inflation indicators
The average price increase indicator edged up slightly to 2.5, while the planned average wage increase for the next 12 months rose modestly to 2.7.
This is an excerpt from the CFIB report.