CFIB’s Business Barometer® long-term index, which is based on 12-month forward expectations for business performance, shaved about two points and sits at 55.0—a good reading for the past 12 months but modest when compared to the historical average. The short-term optimism index, based on a 3-month outlook, dropped also about two points to 50.3.
Provincial picture
Most of Canada’s drop in optimism is due to declines in long-term confidence in Manitoba, British Columbia and Ontario. The provincial indexes are widespread this month from PEI’s top reading of 62.2 to NL’s low of 52.6. Similar to the August readings, the top provinces report levels that are closely around their historical averages: Prince Edward Island (62.2), New Brunswick (62.2) and Manitoba (58.3).
Sectoral picture
The sectoral indices for long-term confidence range from 65.9 in the health and education sector to 45.9 in agriculture. However, other than the information, arts and recreation sector and the hospitality sector, which registered some sharper seasonal drops -8.3 points and -3.7 points respectively, and wholesale (-4.9 points), the other industries have recorded minimal changes.
Inflation indicators
The average price increase indicator decreased to 2.3, similar to the level recorded in March 2021. The average wage increase planned for the next 12 months also dropped to 2.3.
This is an excerpt from the CFIB report.