Small business optimism in Canada
CFIB’s Business Barometer® long-term index, which is based on 12-month forward expectations for business performance, has seen a small uptick to start the new year, to reach 49.0. The short-term optimism index, based on a 3-month outlook, also increased by three points, and reached 43.0. Both levels are significantly below historical readings.
Provincial picture
Overall, the provincial outlook is mixed. Six provinces have registered increases in long term optimism. Prince Edward Island, Newfoundland and Labrador, Saskatchewan and Manitoba are at or above 50, while the rest are ranging from 41.3 in New Brunswick to 49.8 in British Columbia.
Sectoral picture
Most sectors registered some gains in long term optimism, with retail reporting the largest jump (+6.3 points). Personal services, wholesale and transportation have seen decreases in long term confidence. Similar to the last three months, agriculture and hospitality are at the bottom of the optimism scale.
Inflation indicators
Average price increase plans for the next 12 months dropped at 2.8%. This marks the indicator’s first time since Spring 2021 being below the upper band of Bank of Canada’s range for inflation of 1% to 3%.
Average wage plans increased slightly to 2.7%.
This is an excerpt from the CFIB’s January Monthly Business Barometer.