CFIB’s Business Barometer® long-term index, which is based on 12-month forward expectations for business performance, soared almost 9 points in May to reach 56.4. The short-term optimism index, based on a 3-month outlook, also gained five points, and reached 52.3. Long-term optimism is at a similar level as last May (56.1) and the highest level since.
Provincial picture
Canada’s long-term confidence is driven mostly by Ontario’s significant gain in optimism. Quebec (+1.0 points), Manitoba (+1.9 points) and BC (+0.8 points) have also seen improvements in confidence. Alberta, Saskatchewan, and the Atlantic provinces registered declines in optimism.
Sectoral picture
The sectoral monthly changes are a mix up of increases (in 7 sectors) and declines (in 5 sectors). The most notable changes are in the retail and transportation sectors; both have registered sizeable improvements of 4.9 and 4.7 points. Hospitality and agriculture are still mostly negative about their long-term outlook with levels below 50 (46.6 and 40.5 respectively).
Inflation indicators
The average price increase indicator cooled back down to 2.8 shaving off the 0.5 points gained in April, and almost on par with March level (2.7). The average wage increase plans for the next 12 months dropped slightly to 2.8 in May, a small correction from the April 2.9 level but higher than the March reading of 2.5.
This is an excerpt from the CFIB, the full report can be accessed here.