Canada’s decision on whether to sign onto a U.S.-Mexico trade agreement will hinge largely on how much stock it puts in Donald Trump’s threats to wipe out NAFTA and forge a two-way deal with Mexico.
On both counts, the president is on decidedly shaky ground, say veteran trade lawyers and negotiators on both sides of the border...
That may seem simple, but Hillman [a former general counsel to the U.S. trade representative] and others say it’s just not possible.
To begin with, Trump’s power to renegotiate NAFTA was granted by Congress under Trade Promotion Authority laws. That power was granted after the Trump administration notified Congress of an intent to engage in trilateral talks with both Canada and Mexico to modernize NAFTA. If Trump wants to pursue a bilateral deal with Mexico, he’ll have to provide a new notification to Congress, restarting a 90-day period during which legislators are entitled to consider the proposal...
Once negotiations are complete, a formal text must be submitted and considered by Congress for 60 days before it can be signed, she added.
All of which suggests that legal requirements of getting a bilateral deal through Congress then would pour cold water on the Trump administration’s desire to have a deal ready in time for Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto to get it signed before he leaves office Dec. 1...
Even if Canada signs on, trade experts are highly skeptical that the fact sheets and press releases distributed by U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer Monday can be turned into a comprehensive legal text ready for congressional consideration in time for the Mexican Dec.1 deadline...
“It’s very clear here in the United States that Trump does not have the votes or the support to simply withdraw from NAFTA.”..
This was excerpted from 28 August 2018 edition of the Financial Post.