WTO downgrades outlook for global trade as risks accumulate

September 27, 2018

Trade will continue to expand but at a more moderate pace than previously forecast. The WTO anticipates growth in merchandise trade volume of 3.9% in 2018, with trade expansion slowing further to 3.7% in 2019. The new forecast for 2018 is below the WTO's 12 April estimate of 4.4% but falls within the 3.1% to 5.5% growth range indicated at that time. Trade growth in 2018 is now most likely to fall within a range from 3.4% to 4.4%.

Some of the downside risks identified in the April press release have since materialized, most notably a rise in actual and proposed trade measures targeting a variety of exports from large economies. The direct economic effects of these measures have been modest to date but the uncertainty they generate may already be having an impact through reduced investment spending. Monetary policy tightening in developed economies has also contributed to volatility in exchange rates and may continue to do so in the coming months...

The full report is available on the WTO website.

Topic(s)

International Trade and Border Management

Information source

World Customs Organization (WCO) / World Trade Organization (WTO)

Disclaimer

The foregoing information is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as, nor should it be considered, professional advice or a substitute for conducting your own thorough research and review. Before making any decisions or taking any action based on the information provided, you should conduct your own independent investigation and/or seek professional advice from a qualified expert in the relevant field. The CSCB disclaims all liability for actions taken or not taken based on the information provided.

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