Canada’s small business confidence picked up almost three points in October, rising to 58.9. The gain marks the first national confidence increase in four months, but underlying factors continue to show a weak economy, according to CFIB’s latest Business Barometer® Index...

On a scale between 0 and 100, an index above 50 means owners expecting their business’ performance to be stronger in the next year outnumber those expecting weaker performance. One normally sees an index level of between 65 and 70 when the economy is growing at its potential.

Optimism bounced back in British Columbia, rising to 65.7, well above the national average. Alberta made a slight recovery from a record low, improving two points this month to 36.1, still well behind all other provinces. Saskatchewan saw another small drop, slipping a point to 58.3. Manitoba jumped more than six points to 60.6, despite seeing a drop in business owners who believe their businesses are in good shape. Ontario picked up three points and moves to 62.5, while Quebec slipped to 57.1, falling just below the national average. Newfoundland and Labrador’s business confidence climbed to 65.0. Nova Scotia rose to 68.0, and remains at the top of the country for the second consecutive month. New Brunswick’s confidence saw a drop to 59.0. Prince Edward Island continued to fall and now sits just above the national average at 59.4.

Confidence increases in the agricultural, construction and manufacturing sectors were responsible for much of the improving mood across Canada. In contrast, retail, hospitality and the service sectors all trended down in October. The resources sector remains the least optimistic by a significant margin.

Employment plans across the country are showing normal seasonal patterns, but are weak compared to last year, with 16 per cent of businesses planning to hire additional full-time staff in the next few months versus 15 per cent planning on cutting back. Wage-increase plans returned to trend at 1.6 per cent, but the weak dollar has pushed pricing plans up again to 2.4 per cent...

This has been exerpted from the 29 October 2015 news release by CFIB.