The extent of the damage to the global economy caused by novel coronavirus COVID-19 moved further into focus on Wednesday as UN economists announced a likely $50 billion drop in worldwide manufacturing exports in February alone...

Preliminary economic data analysed by the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) in Geneva, indicate that virus containment measures in China – where the outbreak emerged in late December – have already caused a “substantial decline in output”.

Those worst hit are expected to the European Union ($15.5 billion), the United States ($5.8 billion) and Japan ($5.2 billion), said Pamela Coke-Hamilton, who heads UNCTAD’s Division on International Trade and Commodities.

For developing economies that are reliant on selling raw materials, the effects could be felt “very, very intensely”, she added.

“Assuming that it is not mitigated in the short-term, it’s likely that the overall impact on the global economy is going to be significant in terms of a negative downturn.”

Citing the China Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI), the UN economist noted that it had fallen to 37.5 - a drop of about 20 points – the lowest reading since 2004.

“This also correlates directly to exports and also implies a two per cent drop in overall exports,” she said, with a resulting “ripple effect” worldwide “to the tune of a $50 billion fall in exports”.

Because China has become the main supplier of finished products and so-called “intermediate” products used in countless industries - from chemical for pharmaceuticals to parts for digital cameras and the car industry - concerns about the long-term disruption to supply chains there, has left many companies around the world “fearful” that their own output may soon be affected, UNCTAD said...

This is excerpted from 4 March 2020 article by UN News.